Lucky Streak Challenge (強運チャレンジ): how far can pure luck go?

Basic rules of Lucky Streak Challenge

• Press "Try your luck" (運だめし) to start an attempt. That is all you do: there is no timing and nothing to choose, and nothing you do changes the odds.
• Early steps bring easy events, and the further you go the rarer they get: steps 1 to 3, 4 to 6 and 7 to 9 each have their own tier, and from step 10 the rarest ordinary events come. The same event never comes twice in a row. Reaching the later steps is rare, though.
• Whether you succeed is decided by the event's real odds. The result is drawn without bias from your browser's cryptographic random numbers.
• A success multiplies your luck score by the event's odds and moves you to the next step. The attempt ends at the step where the chain breaks (a failure).
• From step 8, one time in ten, a "Wild Odds" (ヤバい確率) event comes in place of an ordinary one.

How to play on Asobi Lounge

• Start an attempt with the "Try your luck" button, or with Space or Enter on a keyboard.
• The events come one at a time, and the scene slows down just before the result. Tap, or press Space or Enter, to fast-forward the scene. The "Fast x3" (早送り) toggle (F key) speeds everything up at any time. Fast-forwarding never changes a result.
• When the chain breaks, the result screen shows your luck score, your title, the list of miracles that held, in step order, and a "Certificate of Luck". You can save the certificate as an image and share your result with the share buttons.
• When you are signed in, your best goes to the leaderboard. Your personal best and your counts of attempts today and in total are also kept in this browser. On the result screen, Space or Enter starts another attempt at once.

How the luck score is calculated

The luck score is the product of the odds of every event you pulled off, which is the true probability of pulling off those events in that order. For example, succeeding at heads on a coin (x2), a 6 on a die (x6) and three rock-paper-scissors wins in a row (x27) gives 2 x 6 x 27 = 324, a luck score of 1 in 324.

Large numbers are written with Japanese units (万, 億, 兆, 京 and on up to 無量大数), and anything larger as a power of ten, such as 10 to the 120th. The score is added up as a number of digits (a logarithm), so it never overflows however long the chain goes on.

The events and their odds

Each one is an everyday event whose probability can be calculated exactly. The odds are the same values as in Make a Miracle. This is what can come at each step.

The later a step is, the less likely it is to be reached, because the real odds multiply. About 77% of attempts end at the very first event. Step 2 is reached about 1 time in 4, step 3 about 1 time in 28, step 4 about 1 time in 141, step 7 about 1 time in 75.17 million, step 8 (where Wild Odds begin) about 1 time in 73.1 billion and step 10 about 1 time in 141 quadrillion. The events at the end of the list are almost never seen, and meeting one is a rare miracle.

• Steps 1 to 3: heads on a coin (1 in 2), a 6 on a die (1 in 6), three rock-paper-scissors wins in a row (1 in 27)
• Steps 4 to 6: three dice showing the same number (1 in 36), the ace of spades from a deck (1 in 52), a clock showing repeated digits (1 in 180), your birthday (1 in 365)
• Steps 7 to 9: five cards of one suit (about 1 in 505), ten coin flips in a row all heads (1 in 1,024), five dice all showing 6 (1 in 7,776)
• From step 10: one die showing 1 to 6 in order (1 in 46,656), ten rock-paper-scissors wins in a row (1 in 59,049), a royal straight flush (1 in 649,740)
• Wild Odds (from step 8, one time in ten): thirty heads in a row (1 in 1,073,741,824), twenty rock-paper-scissors wins in a row (1 in 3,486,784,401), being the one person picked out of 8.2 billion (1 in 8,200,000,000, counting the world as about 8.2 billion people), a Rubik's Cube that comes out solved (1 in 43,252,003,274,489,856,000, the number of cube positions) and a shuffled deck that lands in new-deck order (1 in 52!, about 1 in 8.07 x 10 to the 67th)

How the odds come about

A clock showing repeated digits means one of the 8 times 0:00, 1:11, 2:22, 3:33, 4:44, 5:55, 11:11 and 22:22 on a 24-hour clock: 8 of the 1,440 minutes in a day, so 1 in 180. Your birthday is 1 day of the 365 in a year (leap days are not counted).

Five cards of one suit is 5,148 of the 2,598,960 five-card hands, about 1 in 505 (the exact value is used in the score). A royal straight flush is 4 of those 2,598,960 hands: 10, J, Q, K and A of one suit.

Every step is a draw with exactly the odds of its event. Even for odds as large as 1 in 52!, the draw is made exactly with whole numbers.

Titles and comparison lines

The higher the luck score, the higher the title. The result screen also shows a comparison line, such as being about as unlikely as flipping heads a number of times in a row. A comparison is shown only when your score really is at least that big, and it states only facts.

• Not Yet (no success), Slightly Lucky (from 1 in 2), Lucky One (from 1 in 10), Lucky Person (from 1 in 100), Strong Luck (from 1 in 1,000)
• Master of Luck (from 1 in 10,000), Miracle Luck (from 1 in 1 million), Legendary Luck (from 1 in 100 million), One on Earth (from 1 in 8.2 billion), Ruler of Fate (from 1 in 10 quadrillion)

The certificate, sharing and the leaderboard

The "Certificate of Luck" is your result as an image. When you are signed in, your profile display name goes on it. When you are not signed in, it says "you" (あなた). The image holds only the name, the luck score, the title, the miracles that held, the number of attempts, the date and the site URL. The text sent by the share buttons holds no name.

The leaderboard lists the personal best of signed-in players, from the largest luck score down, for today (it resets at midnight Japan time) and for all time. For the same luck score, the player with fewer attempts up to that point ranks higher (each player's attempts are counted in their own browser). The numbers in the list are estimates worked out from the saved value.

Tips for enjoying it

• Nothing you do changes the odds, including when you press or how many times. Relax and press it as often as you like.
• Fast-forward makes an attempt end quickly, so you can make many attempts in a short time.
• Wild Odds events start from step 8, but reaching step 8 happens about 1 time in 73.1 billion. If you ever meet one, it is a very lucky day.
• On the leaderboard, the same luck score ranks higher with fewer attempts, so a record made in few attempts is worth more.
• When your device is set to reduce motion, the scenes are toned down. The results do not change.

Frequently asked questions

Is this a pure-luck game?

Yes. All you do is start the attempt. There is no timing and nothing to choose, and the result is decided by the odds alone. The game where your skill makes the miracle happen is "Make a Miracle".

Are the odds shown the real odds?

Yes. They are the real odds of each event: heads on a coin is 1 in 2, a royal straight flush is 1 in 649,740, and so on. The result is drawn with exactly those odds from your browser's cryptographic random numbers. "One person out of 8.2 billion" counts the world as about 8.2 billion people.

How does the luck score grow?

The odds of every event you pull off are multiplied together. Succeeding at 1 in 2, 1 in 6 and 1 in 27 gives 1 in 324. The longer the chain, the more digits it gains.

Is there a limit to how many times I can play a day?

No. You can play as many times as you like and try again at once from the result screen. The result screen shows your counts of attempts today and in total.

Does the result image contain personal information?

When you are signed in, your profile display name goes on it. Your email address does not. When you are not signed in, it says "you". The text sent by the share buttons holds no name.

Is Lucky Streak Challenge free to play?

Yes, it costs nothing. Without signing in, you can play everything right away from this page. Your personal best and your attempt counts are kept in this browser. Sign in with a Google account to put your best on the leaderboard and to have your profile display name on the certificate.

More silly games

• Make a Miracle